Morning Commentary Feb 16, 2026: Nifty Opening, IT Recovery, and Summer Stocks to Watch

Good morning! As we step into the trading session for February 16, 2026, the market is showing a "Low-Latency" start with a mildly bearish bias. With global markets taking a pause, today’s action will be driven by domestic themes and tactical sector rotations.

The Market Snapshot

  • Gift Nifty: Currently signaling a gap-down opening, trading around 25,457.50 (-61.30 points). Expect Nifty to test its immediate support zones early in the session.

  • US Markets Closed: Tonight is Presidents' Day in the US, so Wall Street will be shuttered. Expect lower volumes and no overseas cues for our Tuesday opening.

  • Expiry Week: We are entering Monthly Expiry week. Be extremely cautious with naked option positions; Theta (time decay) will be aggressive as we approach Thursday.

Sectoral Logic & Key Themes

1. The IT "Reboot" (Short Covering)

After a brutal "Claude Crash" and H-1B related carnage last week, we saw some signs of life on Friday afternoon.

  • Tech Mahindra: Currently showing the strongest technical "Kernel" in the IT pack. Watch for it to lead the recovery.

  • Watchlist: Infosys and TCS. If they hold their Friday lows, the short-covering rally could extend.

2. The "Summer Code" (Seasonal Theme)

With the IMD forecasting an intense heatwave, the "Summer Theme" is now live. These stocks are seeing structural buying as demand for cooling solutions spikes.

  • Refrigerant Gases: Navin Fluorine, SRF, and Refex are essential "API" components for the AC industry.

  • White Goods (ACs & Coolers): Voltas, Blue Star, Havells, and Symphony are the primary beneficiaries of the white-hot consumer demand.

3. Chemicals & Textiles

  • Chemical Focus: Keep an eye on mid-caps like Advance Enzyme, Archean Chemicals, and Tata Chemicals for value-based buying.

  • Textile Momentum: The momentum from last week is expected to continue. Ensure you are tracking the specific targets we shared previously.

The Personal View

As a developer and trader, my "Engineering Logic" for today is simple: Manage the Risk, not the Profit. Since US markets are closed, our market might get "Range-Bound" after the initial gap-down. Don't chase the momentum in the first 15 minutes. Wait for the India VIX to settle before deploying capital into the "Summer Theme" stocks.

Summary (Hindi)

आज बाजार की शुरुआत हल्की गिरावट के साथ हो सकती है, क्योंकि Gift Nifty लगभग 61 पॉइंट नीचे ट्रेड कर रहा है। आज रात अमेरिका में Presidents' Day की छुट्टी है, इसलिए कल के लिए कोई विदेशी संकेत नहीं मिलेंगे।

मुख्य बातें:

  • IT सेक्टर: पिछले हफ्ते की गिरावट के बाद Tech Mahindra, Infosys और TCS में 'Short Covering' (खरीददारी) की संभावना है।

  • गर्मी का सीजन (Summer Theme): गर्मी जल्दी आने के कारण AC और कूलर बनाने वाली कंपनियों जैसे Voltas, Havells, और Blue Star पर ध्यान दें। गैस कंपनियों में SRF और Navin Fluorine अच्छे दिख रहे हैं।

  • सावधानी: इस हफ्ते मंथली एक्सपायरी है, इसलिए ऑप्शंस में सावधानी बरतें क्योंकि प्रीमियम तेजी से गल सकता है (Time Decay)।

Dhaval Visariya

AMFI Registered Distributor (ARN-327925) | Software Developer & Finance Enthusiast

Connect with me:
LinkedIn | Telegram | YouTube | GitHub | Medium

Disclaimer: I am an AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Distributor. Views expressed here are for educational purposes. Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
📧 Contact: info.apollofinancialservices@gmail.com

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