Dhaval Visariya

In a historic ruling that has sent shockwaves through Washington and global markets, the Supreme Court of the United States officially ruled today that President Trump’s sweeping global tariffs are illegal. The 6-3 decision marks the most significant legal defeat for the administration’s second-term economic agenda to date. The Core of the Ruling: Who Holds the Power? The case centered on the President's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977. The administration argued that trade deficits and border issues constituted a national emergency, allowing for unilateral import taxes. However, Chief Justice John Roberts, writing for the majority, made the court's stance clear: "The Framers did not vest any part of the taxing power in the Executive Branch." The Court ruled that the Constitution "very clearly" gives Congress , not the President, the authority to impose taxes and tariffs. While the President has broad emergency power...

The headlines were screaming "System Failure" last week, but the data is starting to show a different story. While the Claude Crash and H-1B fears wiped out billions, today's 3% surge in Infosys and the 2% rally in Nifty IT represent a critical "System Reboot." For the Aggressive Contra Investor , the current correction is not a bug—it’s a feature. As Nomura recently pointed out, valuations have officially entered the "Value Zone" after a 21% crash from the peak. The "Logic" Behind the Bounce The Partnership Pivot: Infosys just announced a strategic "Agentic AI" collaboration with Anthropic . By integrating Claude models with Infosys Topaz , they aren't just fighting AI—they are automating the most complex workflows in telecom, finance, and manufacturing. Nomura’s "Value" Signal: Global brokerage Nomura believes fears of AI-led disruption are oversimplifying the deep, essential role of IT services. At current lev...

Good morning! As we step into the trading session for February 16, 2026 , the market is showing a "Low-Latency" start with a mildly bearish bias. With global markets taking a pause, today’s action will be driven by domestic themes and tactical sector rotations. The Market Snapshot Gift Nifty: Currently signaling a gap-down opening, trading around 25,457.50 (-61.30 points) . Expect Nifty to test its immediate support zones early in the session. US Markets Closed: Tonight is Presidents' Day in the US, so Wall Street will be shuttered. Expect lower volumes and no overseas cues for our Tuesday opening. Expiry Week: We are entering Monthly Expiry week . Be extremely cautious with naked option positions; Theta (time decay) will be aggressive as we approach Thursday. Sectoral Logic & Key Themes 1. The IT "Reboot" (Short Covering) After a brutal "Claude Crash" and H-1B related carnage last week, we saw some signs of life on Friday afternoon. Tech Mahi...

आज दलाल स्ट्रीट पर एक बड़ा "सिस्टम अपडेट" देखने को मिला। BSE, Angel One, और MCX जैसे मार्केट इंफ्रास्ट्रक्चर और ब्रोकिंग शेयर्स में 10% तक की भारी गिरावट दर्ज की गई। इस गिरावट का मुख्य कारण है RBI द्वारा 13 फरवरी को घोषित किए गए Capital Market Exposure (CME) के संशोधित नियम, जो 1 अप्रैल, 2026 से लागू होंगे। एक सॉफ्टवेयर इंजीनियर और अल्गो ट्रेडर के रूप में, मैं इसे बाजार के "लिक्विडिटी कर्नल" (Liquidity Kernel) में एक बड़ा बदलाव मानता हूँ। आइए समझते हैं कि आखिर क्या बदला है और इसका आप पर क्या असर होगा। क्या बदलाव हुए हैं? (The Core Update) RBI ने बैंकों द्वारा ब्रोकर्स को दिए जाने वाले कर्ज के नियमों को बहुत सख्त कर दिया है: 100% कोलैटरल अनिवार्य (100% Collateral): अब बैंकों को ब्रोकर्स को क्रेडिट देने के लिए पूरी तरह से सुरक्षित (Fully Secured) कोलैटरल लेना होगा। पहले कुछ गारंटी बिना सिक्योरिटी के भी चल जाती थी, लेकिन अब वो "डेप्रिकेट" (Deprecate) कर दी गई हैं। 40% हेयरकट (40% Haircut): अगर कोई ब्रोकर कोलैटरल के रूप में शेयर देता है, तो बैंक उसकी वैल...

The market is reacting sharply today, February 16, 2026 , as capital market stocks like BSE, Angel One, and Groww have plummeted up to 10% in early trade. The trigger is a combination of a new Jefferies report and the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) aggressive crackdown on speculative funding. While you previously projected a target of 3400–3500+ for BSE, the "Source Code" of the market has just been updated with new regulatory constraints. 1. The Jefferies "10% Earnings Leak" Jefferies has released a fresh assessment estimating that the latest RBI norms will hit 10-12% of BSE's options turnover . The Math: Because derivatives now form a massive chunk of BSE's revenue (₹784 crore in Q3 FY26), a 10% drop in turnover translates directly to a ~10% hit on the bottom line (EPS) . Why the hit? Jefferies believes the new "fully secured" lending model will reduce the "Leverage Budget" for high-frequency trading (HFT) and proprietary desks,...

The markets didn't just correct today; they suffered a total system reboot. In a staggering 90-minute window on February 12, 2026, over $3.6 Trillion in global wealth evaporated. From the "Safe Havens" of Gold and Silver to the tech giants of the Nasdaq, everything was hit by a high-frequency liquidation wave. ​As a developer, I see this as the ultimate "Stress Test." The "Engineering Logic" that once held these valuations together has been rewritten by AI Disruption and Monetary Shockwaves. ​1. The "Safe Haven" Illusion: Gold & Silver Vaporized ​The biggest shock wasn't tech; it was the total collapse of the "Safety Layer." ​Gold: Plunged 3.76%, sliding below the psychological $5,000 mark and wiping out $1.34 Trillion. ​Silver: Suffered a catastrophic 8.5% dump, erasing $400 Billion in market cap. ​The Logic: This was a "Liquidity Flush." When tech stocks crashed, hedge funds faced massive margin calls. To raise c...

The IT sell-off today (February 12, 2026) is the culmination of a "Systemic Shock" caused by the Trump administration's radical shifts in H-1B policy. The Current Market Reality (Feb 12, 2026) The Nifty IT index has dived nearly 4% today, with heavyweights like Infosys, TCS, and Tech Mahindra leading the slide. While the "H-1B revocation" headlines are technically nuanced, the market is pricing in the $100,000 application fee and the Merit-Based Lottery overhaul that effectively "re-factors" the cost of doing business in the US. Why IT Stocks are Crashing The $100,000 "Entry Tax": The executive order imposing a $100,000 fee per new H-1B visa has essentially destroyed the cost-advantage model of Indian outsourcing. For a company like TCS or Wipro, sponsoring 1,000 new workers now costs an additional $100 million in fees alone. Merit-Based "Kernel" Update: The random lottery has been replaced with a Wage-Ranked Selection (eff...

In the fast-paced world of options trading, understanding market volatility isn't just an advantage—it's your "Predictive Algorithm." The India VIX , often called the "Fear Gauge," is a powerful tool that, when used correctly, can help you project Nifty's expected daily movement. Forget complex formulas. We're going to break down a simple yet highly effective VIX-based "Range Finder" strategy that can give you a significant edge in intraday and swing trading. Key Takeaways VIX as a Range Predictor: The India VIX directly forecasts the Nifty's expected +/- daily percentage movement over the next 30 days. The "Square Root" Logic: A simple mathematical conversion helps you translate VIX points into a daily expected range. Dynamic Support & Resistance: Your VIX-derived range gives you real-time, data-backed support and resistance levels for Nifty. Volatility Alerts: A rapidly rising VIX signals potential for larger, more...

In 2026, Gold has moved beyond being just a "crisis asset" to becoming a high-velocity trading tool. With central banks aggressively buying and global uncertainty fueling a "Safe Haven" rally, Gold ETFs are now seeing 3–5% intraday swings , making them perfect for both long-term architects and agile swing traders. Key Takeaways High-Volatility Alpha: Gold ETFs have seen sharp rebounds of up to 10% in single sessions recently, offering significant "Swing" potential. The Liquidity Kings: Nippon India Gold BeES and SBI Gold ETF remain the dominant players with the highest trading volumes. Taxation Protocol: Post-Budget 2026, Gold ETFs are taxed at 12.5% (Long-term >12 months) or as per your Tax Slab (Short-term), making them as efficient as the new SGB rules. Strategic Entry: Analysts are currently advising a "Buy on Dips" logic for 2026, with an upside target approaching $5,100–$5,200 . Top 5 Gold ETFs for 2026 (BSE & NSE) ...

The Tata Silver Exchange Traded Fund (INF277KA1984) is a specialized instrument designed to track the domestic price of physical silver (99.9% purity). As of February 11, 2026, silver has become a "High-Volatility Alpha" play, driven by its unique status as both a safe-haven precious metal and a critical industrial commodity for the green energy boom. The "Live Snapshot" (Feb 11, 2026) Last Traded Price: ₹25.09 Day's Movement: +₹0.37 (1.50%) Expense Ratio: 0.44% (Regular) | ~0.18% (Direct/ETF) Riskometer: Very High Risk (due to silver's high volatility compared to gold) 1. Swing Trading Logic: Catching the "Industrial Squeeze" Silver is famously "swingier" than gold. In 2026, its price is being refactored by massive demand for solar panels, EVs, and 5G technology. The Strategy: Use Relative Strength (RS) comparison. Silver often outperforms gold during economic expansion phases. If you see the Gold-Silver Ratio falling below 50...

The financial world is buzzing with the revival of the SBI Mutual Fund IPO , arguably the most anticipated entry into the AMC sector since ICICI Prudential's debut. As India’s largest asset manager, this listing isn't just a capital event; it’s a structural re-rating of the Indian fund industry. Key Takeaways Projected Launch: Expected in the first half of 2026 (H1 2026) , targeting a listing by September at the latest. Massive Issue Size: The IPO is set to raise approximately $1.2 – $1.4 Billion (₹12,500 – ₹22,000 Crores) . Premium Valuation: Projected at $12 – $14 Billion (~₹1.10 Lakh Crores), putting it ahead of HDFC AMC and Nippon India. Market Dominance: Largest AMC in India by AUM, managing over ₹11.16 – ₹26.83 Lakh Crores as of recent 2024-2025 filings. Strategic Growth: Clocked a 36% CAGR in profits over the last five years. 1. The "Double Application" Advantage (Shareholder Quota) One of the most powerful features of this IPO is the expected Sharehold...

In the world of intraday trading, the option chain isn't just a list of prices—it’s a "Heat Map" of where the Big Players (Smart Money) are defending their territory. Most retail traders lose money because they trade the "Price" they see, while professionals trade the "Pain" of others. The +3 -3 Strategy is a high-probability "Logic Filter" that uses reverse psychology to spot where the market is likely to reverse or stall. By tracking the 7 most liquid strikes around the ATM (At-The-Money), you stop guessing and start following the "House." Key Takeaways The Action Zone: Focusing on ATM, +3 strikes (Calls), and -3 strikes (Puts) captures the highest intraday liquidity and gamma sensitivity. Institutional Defense: Large Open Interest (OI) acts as a "Wall." High Call OI is a Ceiling; high Put OI is a Floor. The "Trap" Signal: When retail traders pile into one side, the "Smart Money" often pushes the ...